Predictors of early morbidity and mortality after thrombolytic therapy of acute myocardial infarction. Analyses of patient subgroups in the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) trial, phase II.

BACKGROUND Thrombolysis has altered treatment of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Therefore, reevaluation of predictors of outcome and treatment strategies is appropriate. METHODS AND RESULTS Clinical variables collected prospectively for the 3,339 patients of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction II study were analyzed retrospectively to identify predictors of clinical events at 42 days and earlier and to identify subgroups in which an invasive or conservative strategy might be superior. Pulmonary edema/cardiogenic shock presented as the strongest independent correlate with death (relative risk, 6.0). In two subgroups, mortality differed between the invasive and conservative strategies: 1) Patients with versus without prior AMI had a higher mortality in the conservative strategy (11.5% versus 3.5%, p less than 0.001); in the invasive strategy, the mortality rates were similar (6.0% and 5.1%). 2) Patients with diabetes mellitus and no prior AMI had a higher mortality in the invasive than in the conservative strategy (14.8% versus 4.2%, p less than 0.001). Reinfarction was not independently correlated with baseline characteristics except with history of angina (relative risk, 1.9). Mortality was lower in current smokers and ex-smokers versus never-smokers (3.6% and 4.8% versus 8.0%, p less than 0.001). Current smokers had a lower risk profile (p less than 0.001), including age, pulmonary edema/cardiogenic shock, history of hypertension, and diabetes. The rate of reinfarction was lower in current smokers versus ex-smokers and never-smokers (4.6% versus 8.3% and 8.8%, p less than 0.001). "Not current smoker" was an independent correlate with reinfarction (relative risk, 1.9). The coronary anatomy did not differ among the current smokers, ex-smokers, and never-smokers. CONCLUSIONS The strong independent correlation of pulmonary edema/cardiogenic shock with death suggests that thrombolysis is not sufficient to improve survival in these patients. The higher mortality in patients with versus without prior AMI in the conservative strategy suggests that early catheterization and revascularization of these patients might be beneficial. Conversely, the higher mortality in diabetes without prior AMI in the invasive than in the conservative strategy suggests that early aggressive management might not be suitable in this subgroup except for clinical indications. Reinfarction was not predictable by clinical variables except by history of angina. The finding that "not current smoker" was an independent correlate with reinfarction was unexpected.